On Dec. 14, Bitcoin pioneer Nic Carter asked the burning question. Almost everyone assumes that we’re due for a 2017/18 or 2021/22-esque bull run, he said.
“I’ll be the guy to ask why. Do you have any basis for this or have you trained a model on 2 data points?” he asked.
The question is valid since the global economic situation is very different now from the previous cycle highs.
almost everyone on here assumes that we’re due for a 2017/18 or 2021/22 esque bull run. i’ll be the guy to ask why? do you have any basis for this or have you trained a model on 2 datapoints?
— nic 🌠 carter (@nic__carter) December 14, 2023
Mostly Positive Responses
The first responses pointed out that the halving and issuance drop was the catalyst for bull markets.
However, Carter has an alternative theory in the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which suggests that asset prices reflect all available information on that asset.
When applied to Bitcoin, the EMH argues that Bitcoin’s price would already reflect all relevant information on supply and demand, making it difficult to predict whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued at any given time.
BitMEX Research pointed out that there have been four major cycle peaks, not two, adding:
“But yes it’s inevitable these bull runs end at some point, or that the cycle length increases significantly.”
Bitcoin educator Dan Held commented, “Humans will continue to speculate/gamble. That’s the assumption.”
Investment analyst Lyn Alden said she expected the space will “generally continue correlating with various measures of global liquidity,” adding:
“No firm view on 2024, but by the end of the combined 2024/2025 period I would be somewhat surprised if liquidity is not higher than now.”
Meanwhile, co-CEO of CoinRoutes Dave Weisberger said that the Bitcoin network is more than twice as powerful as it was at the previous peak. He also said that Bitcoin ETFs will open up the asset to anyone with a brokerage account or pension fund.
Moreover, multiple high-profile investors have been converted to a belief in Bitcoin, increasing the odds of adoption as “digital gold,” he concluded.
Primed For a Bull Market
In a separate post, trader Bob Loukas commented on the indicators, suggesting there will be a big bull run.
He noted that interest rates have peaked, ETFs are around the corner, and the Bitcoin four-year cycle just completed its first quarter. “Asset class acceptance accelerating,” he concluded.
Rates have peaked. The #bitcoin 4 Year cycle just completed its first 1/4. ETF’s are coming. Asset class acceptance accelerating.
The confluence is near perfect.
The market will test you, often. Broaden the timeframe to weather volatility. Timing and discipline is key
— Bob Loukas 🗽 (@BobLoukas) December 14, 2023
Earlier this week, CryptoPotato reported that Bitwise predicted BTC would reach $80,000 in 2024, and most are in agreement that momentum is back with the digital asset class.
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