In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily crypto technical analysis video, we’re examining past bitcoin bear markets to see how far ahead we might be before the bottom turns down.
Take a look at the video below:
Video: Bitcoin Price Analysis (BTCUSD): November 9, 2022
Bitcoin price is now continuing to hit new lows after the downside as support has been decisively broken.
Extended Flat Corrective Pattern Forward Fills
The market is clearly bearish but on the bright side we may have the last wave in an extended flat pattern. The push for new lows continues which could fill a large falling wedge pattern. But considering the price action and sentiment there, it is challenging to consider any bullish thesis.
Bitcoin price is now at 0.5 retracement using Fibonacci on log settings. But it is not very reassuring. Looking at the expectations for the $14K and $13K zones, either bitcoin price action turns lower from that level, or it recovers.
Has the corrective pattern completed? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Related Reading: Bitcoin Price: Can Cyclic Tools Predict The Next Bubble? , BTCUSD November 7, 2022
bitcoin bear market worst case scenario
In these next charts, a worst-case scenario will involve a narrowing of the BTC CME gap below $10,000. Not only is there a confluence with the diagonal uptrend support, but it is an almost 85% retracement from the peak.
This is notable, as BTC fell 84% during the 2018 bear market, and 86% during the 2015 bear market. If you average those two samples, you get an average of 85% retracement.
Just as the top cryptocurrency was well below the ROI levels of the previous bull run, bear markets will not see the same decline. The idea is that the volatility of bitcoin is disappearing over time.