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Is the Bitcoin (BTC) Price Rally in Danger? ETF Bears Warn

Is the Bitcoin (BTC) Price Rally in Danger? ETF Bears Warn

After a meteoric rise from $26,750 on Oct. 12 to close the month at $34,667 on Oct. 31, Bitcoin price (BTC) is still rising in November. BTC pumped from the $36,500 handle to multi-day support at $37,400 the day Grayscale Investments met with the SEC over its Bitcoin ETF application.

But its gains have seen more volatility this month, whipsawing on a course for $38,000 as Bitcoin ETF bulls hold their breath. That could be a sign that bears are gaining confidence. Meanwhile, bulls may be losing steam the longer markets wait on an SEC approval.

SEC Approval vs. Operation Timelines Key

Long-only crypto hedge fund Off The Chain Capital’s president, Brian Dixon, recently said he doesn’t expect a big rally when the SEC finally approves one or more Bitcoin ETF products:

“You’ll probably see a short-term increase and then a drawdown. But then, when they become operational, that’s when we’ll see the much larger increase.”

Dixon added, however, that he believes there’s plenty of demand from traditional markets, “I believe there’s a lot of institutional investors … waiting for regulated on-ramp.” But he says the difference between approval and operation timelines is going to be key.

Bitcoin ETF Bears Caution BTC Is Overbought

His prediction echoes a similar one made by Peter Schiff. The Euro Pacific Capital founder and chief strategist said in late October that a Bitcoin ETF approval “will mark the top of the rally.”

Schiff warned a sell-off could materialize sooner.

Meanwhile, Steno Research crypto analyst Mads Eberhardt says markets have overbought the Bitcoin ETF story. In a thread on X.com, Eberhardt wrote:

“However, in contrast to another prevailing market consensus, our expectation diverges; we anticipate that the introduction of the ETFs will exert more selling pressure than buying in the short term…”

The Steno analyst argues this bull market is unsustainable because it is driven primarily by a single narrative. J. P. Morgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou agree. The team said the BTC rally is “overdone” in a note published Nov. 15.

Technical analysis furnishes some evidence to support the Bitcoin ETF bears’ thesis. Bitcoin price RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) began a bearish divergence from BTC’s green candles in November. That bearish delta between the price and the RSI of the asset has widened as markets approach December.

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