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Why is Cardano price down today?

Cardano’s (ADA) price is down today, falling 7.75% in the last 24 hours to hit $0.55 on Dec. 13.

ADA/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

Let’s discuss factors that have been driving the Cardano prices lower recently.

Overbought correction

From the technical perspective, ADA’s price drop today is part of a correction cycle that started on Oct. 9, when ADA’s price reached its 18-month high of $0.64.

Traders secured profits as Cardano’s relative strength index (RSI) on shorter-timeframe charts became “overbought” after crossing 70.

An RSI reading above 70 means the asset is trading is getting overvalued and may undergo trend reversal or corrective pullback.

ADA/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

ADA is pursuing a correction pullback, confirmed by its limited and range-bound movement inside a triangle structure. This period reflects the market’s indecision, where neither the bulls (buyers) nor the bears (sellers) are in control.

ADA supply dwindles among richest addresses 

Cardano’s price drop on Dec. 13 coincides with a modest drop in the ADA supply held by addresses with a balance of over 1 million units.

ADA supply in addresses with a balance over 1 million units. Source: Messari/CoinShares

Notably, the cohort’s control over the ADA supply has increased from 21.62 billion to 21.66 billion tokens so far in December. Its jump coincides with Cardano’s 50% price rally in the same period, hinting that these whales have influenced ADA’s short-term price trends — and Dec. 13 is no different.

Crypto market downturn

The entire crypto market is correcting from its overbought levels and ADA seems to mirroring the same pattern. Factors that may have boosted traders’ selling sentiment include the recent U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data.

Crypto market cap’s daily performance chart. Source: TradingView

Notably, the U.S. headline inflation dropped to 3.1%, year-over-year (YoY), aligning with forecasts. Meanwhile, core CPI YoY remained unchanged at 4%. But there was a slight uptick in month-over-month (MoM) figures, with headline and Core CPI at 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.

This suggests the Federal Reserve may stay cautious about cutting interest rates in the coming months. CME’s fed futures rate data shows a 98.2% possibility that the U.S. central bank will keep the rates steady at 5.25-5.50% at their Dec. 13 meeting.

Fed target rate probabilities for Dec. 13 meeting. Source: CME

A higher-for-longer interest rate stance may strengthen the U.S. dollar and, thus, pressure cryptocurrencies like Cardano’s lower. That is primarily due to a yearlong negative correlation between the greenback and ADA, as shown below.

ADA and the U.S. dollar index’s weekly correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingView

Cardano price prediction for December 2023

Cardano’s pennant structure on the four-hour chart hints at a bullish continuation cycle ahead.

Related: Bitcoin price correction hints start of altseason, trader suggests

Notably, bull pennants are triangle-like patterns that form during an uptrend. As a rule, they resolve after the price breaks above their upper trendline and rises by as much as the previous uptrend’s height.

In result, ADA’s price is well-positioned to reach $0.81 by year’s end if it breaks out of its bullish pennant to the upside, or around 40% upside over the next two weeks.

ADA/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

Moreover, ADA’s 50-4H exponential moving average (50-4H EMA; the red wave) near $0.528 is also increasing its rebound potential toward $0.81.

Conversely, the bearish scenario includes a decisive break below $0.528 that will risk pushing the price toward the 200-4H EMA (the green wave) near $0.42.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.